Care Act Market Impact Simulation – Department of Health


We designed and delivering a national ‘future scenario event’ for the Department of Health, bringing together local authorities, care providers and service user groups to discuss the potential impact of the Care Act and other forces, drivers and trends impacting social care in England. The work involved detailed analysis and research to understand the changing nature of the care market, and a series of interviews with a wide range of stakeholders, including directors of social care, senior clinicians in the NHS, senior civil servants, chief executives of care homes and organisations representing the care sector, academics and policy experts. Two months of research led to the design of a series of realistic possible future scenarios, each one of which represented a different combination of factors in the care market, financial modelling and drivers of health and social care policy. These were then used to match regional variations and to design a major simulation event in London.


At the event groups of very senior executives from all sectors worked together to explore the implications of the Care Act in these different market scenarios – beginning to map the way that the Care Act would impact on different localities and regions, identifying the likely responses of providers, commissioners and others, and helping policy makers, local and central government plan the necessary response.